First Estimations for the 2013 Australian Election

I have used the Newspoll polls which are published by The Australian newspaper to estimate the current state of the Australian election. Newspoll quite accurately called the 2010 national election. The table below shows my estimation based on the most recent national poll which was published on June 2. State level polling is currently done quarterly and the most recent poll was published on March 31st. I have made estimations at the state level based both on the quarterly polling dating back to September of 2012. New national and state polls should be published shortly and I will update my estimations when those new polls are published.

June 2 National and State Estimations

Note that the figures for New South Wales include the two Australian Capital Territory seats while the two Northern Territory seats are not included in the above table. The figures for Tasmania are extrapolated from my estimations for Victoria state.

I estimate that the Liberal group have a substantial 16 percentage point lead at the national level and they appear to lead in every state with the exception of Tasmania. The Greens appear at this stage of the election to be running about two percentage points behind their 2010 election performance at the national level with the steepest decline in their support taking place in Queensland; the smallest decline in Green support appears to have taken place in Victoria.

No polling is done on any other party in the Newspoll poll, responses for all other parties are lumped together into an “Other” category. The support for Other parties is much higher at this stage in the campaign than was the case in 2010. Since Newspoll accurately measures the total Other support in 2010 it seems reasonable to assume that this increased support. This increased Others support appears at this point to be due to support for the mining magnate Clive Palmer’s United Party which has at present nominated candidates in 103 districts. I have no indication one way or another of the support level for the Family First party but it is possible that Family First are registering gains in stronghold states such as South Australia.

I will shortly have the first estimates of the first preference support at the individual district level.