Initial District Level First Preference Estimations

I have estimated the district-by-district first preference figures using a combination of my ordinary least squares model for the Liberal and Labor groups and the Green party and the Newspoll national and state polls. My model accounts for those MP’s who were first elected in 2010 and who are running as incumbents for the first time; these MP’s will have the benefit of incumbancy they lacked in the last election. My model also accounts for those retirements which have been announced as of this date; those districts will not have the benefit of incumbancy that occured in the last election. I have assumed incumbancy advantages for the single Green MP and for the Tasmania independent who is apparently running for reelection. I used the polling data and my model of those polls to make adjustments at the individual district level across each state. These adjustments were made relative to the 2010 election results. Further adjustments were made to these figures so that the individual district estimations were consistant with the state level estimations. The figure for Others is a residual of the estimations for the Liberal and Labor groups and for the Greens.

These figures suggest a substantial lead at the district level for the Liberal group at this stage in the campaign with the Liberals holding first preference leads in 106 seats; Labor have first preference leads in only 41 districts and have first preference majorities in just four districts. Two independents and the single Green MP have the remaining first preference leads.

In my next post I will estimate the final two party preference results from the estimated preference flow. This will determine the number of seats each party is likely to win in the election were the election to be held today.

State Division Liberal Labor Greens Others
NSW Banks 50% 34% 10% 6%
NSW Barton 51% 33% 9% 6%
NSW Bennelong 56% 24% 9% 10%
NSW Berowra 64% 13% 11% 12%
NSW Blaxland 38% 42% 6% 14%
NSW Bradfield 69% 10% 15% 6%
NSW Calare 57% 20% 7% 17%
NSW Charlton 35% 44% 4% 17%
NSW Chifley 28% 49% 6% 17%
NSW Cook 62% 20% 8% 10%
NSW Cowper 55% 19% 8% 19%
NSW Cunningham 37% 40% 10% 12%
NSW Dobell 45% 37% 7% 11%
NSW Eden-Monaro 46% 34% 8% 12%
NSW Farrer 56% 16% 7% 21%
NSW Fowler 34% 50% 4% 11%
NSW Gilmore 54% 29% 6% 12%
NSW Grayndler 29% 37% 21% 13%
NSW Greenway 39% 40% 5% 17%
NSW Hughes 57% 25% 6% 12%
NSW Hume 57% 24% 5% 14%
NSW Hunter 36% 45% 6% 14%
NSW Kingsford Smith 46% 35% 11% 8%
NSW Lindsay 48% 35% 7% 10%
NSW Lyne 61% 24% 5% 10%
NSW Macarthur 55% 26% 7% 12%
NSW Mackellar 67% 12% 18% 4%
NSW Macquarie 52% 19% 13% 15%
NSW McMahon 41% 42% 9% 9%
NSW Mitchell 67% 17% 6% 9%
NSW Newcastle 48% 27% 12% 14%
NSW New England 51% 32% 5% 12%
NSW North Sydney 64% 13% 12% 11%
NSW Page 47% 36% 6% 11%
NSW Parkes 64% 12% 8% 16%
NSW Parramatta 45% 35% 9% 11%
NSW Paterson 56% 29% 4% 11%
NSW Reid 48% 32% 12% 8%
NSW Richmond 45% 30% 15% 10%
NSW Riverina 69% 9% 10% 12%
NSW Robertson 41% 37% 5% 17%
NSW Shortland 38% 44% 5% 13%
NSW Sydney 33% 34% 20% 13%
NSW Thorsby 33% 48% 5% 14%
NSW Warringah 63% 12% 14% 11%
NSW Watson 42% 41% 9% 8%
NSW Wentworth 64% 12% 15% 9%
NSW Werriwa 36% 46% 10% 8%
QLD Blair 40% 38% 8% 14%
QLD Bonner 52% 28% 8% 11%
QLD Bowman 58% 26% 6% 10%
QLD Brisbane 51% 23% 16% 10%
QLD Capricornia 52% 33% 3% 13%
QLD Dawson 51% 32% 3% 13%
QLD Dickson 51% 29% 6% 14%
QLD Fadden 60% 23% 7% 9%
QLD Fairfax 49% 26% 12% 13%
QLD Fisher 48% 26% 9% 16%
QLD Flynn 52% 32% 3% 12%
QLD Forde 49% 30% 11% 10%
QLD Griffith 38% 40% 8% 14%
QLD Groom 63% 19% 6% 12%
QLD Herbert 51% 32% 4% 13%
QLD Hinkler 57% 29% 1% 13%
QLD Kennedy 29% 16% 2% 53%
QLD Leichhardt 53% 27% 9% 11%
QLD Lilley 43% 37% 8% 12%
QLD Longman 49% 30% 8% 13%
QLD Maranoa 68% 16% 4% 12%
QLD McPherson 59% 21% 9% 10%
QLD Moncrieff 64% 19% 10% 6%
QLD Moreton 45% 32% 14% 8%
QLD Oxley 40% 41% 8% 11%
QLD Petrie 42% 39% 5% 14%
QLD Rankin 39% 41% 8% 11%
QLD Ryan 51% 17% 12% 19%
QLD Wide Bay 61% 20% 8% 11%
QLD Wright 58% 20% 10% 12%
VIC Aston 53% 29% 10% 7%
VIC Ballarat 38% 45% 8% 9%
VIC Batman 33% 37% 20% 11%
VIC Bendigo 48% 32% 11% 9%
VIC Bruce 42% 42% 10% 6%
VIC Calwell 30% 50% 10% 9%
VIC Casey 51% 30% 12% 7%
VIC Chisholm 44% 38% 12% 6%
VIC Corangamite 49% 33% 12% 6%
VIC Corio 36% 45% 10% 9%
VIC Deakin 48% 32% 14% 7%
VIC Dunkley 52% 32% 10% 7%
VIC Flinders 59% 25% 12% 4%
VIC Gellibrand 38% 41% 10% 12%
VIC Gippsland 57% 25% 7% 11%
VIC Goldstein 57% 24% 13% 7%
VIC Gorton 26% 57% 8% 9%
VIC Higgins 54% 23% 19% 4%
VIC Holt 34% 48% 10% 7%
VIC Hotham 37% 48% 8% 8%
VIC Indi 56% 21% 11% 12%
VIC Isaacs 39% 42% 11% 8%
VIC Jagajaga 39% 40% 12% 9%
VIC Kooyong 60% 17% 17% 6%
VIC Lalor 27% 58% 2% 13%
VIC La Trobe 40% 40% 10% 10%
VIC Mallee 63% 22% 11% 4%
VIC Maribyrnong 34% 49% 9% 9%
VIC McEwen 33% 48% 6% 12%
VIC McMillan 53% 29% 9% 9%
VIC Melbourne 26% 32% 38% 4%
VIC Melbourne Ports 42% 33% 20% 6%
VIC Menzies 58% 26% 10% 7%
VIC Murray 69% 17% 10% 4%
VIC Scullin 40% 43% 5% 11%
VIC Wannon 52% 21% 7% 20%
VIC Wills 27% 45% 19% 10%
SA Adelaide 42% 34% 11% 14%
SA Barker 59% 18% 9% 14%
SA Boothby 48% 26% 8% 17%
SA Grey 60% 21% 7% 12%
SA Hindmarsh 43% 35% 10% 12%
SA Kingston 32% 42% 9% 16%
SA Makin 35% 40% 8% 17%
SA Mayo 51% 15% 16% 18%
SA Port Adelaide 27% 45% 11% 17%
SA Sturt 52% 26% 6% 15%
SA Wakefield 37% 38% 10% 15%
WA Brand 42% 36% 13% 9%
WA Canning 49% 36% 3% 13%
WA Cowan 53% 28% 10% 10%
WA Curtin 64% 14% 12% 9%
WA Durack 60% 23% 12% 5%
WA Forrest 58% 23% 11% 8%
WA Fremantle 41% 34% 14% 11%
WA Hasluck 48% 29% 13% 10%
WA Moore 53% 26% 11% 11%
WA O’Connor 66% 16% 10% 8%
WA Pearce 51% 29% 11% 10%
WA Perth 41% 35% 13% 10%
WA Stirling 53% 27% 9% 12%
WA Swan 49% 30% 7% 13%
WA Tangney 58% 21% 10% 10%
ACT Canberra 31% 42% 16% 11%
ACT Fraser 26% 43% 17% 13%
NT Lingiari 37% 36% 11% 17%
NT Solomon 52% 28% 13% 7%
TAS Bass 37% 44% 11% 8%
TAS Braddon 44% 42% 10% 4%
TAS Denison 27% 29% 14% 30%
TAS Franklin 38% 36% 19% 7%
TAS Lyons 37% 42% 14% 7%
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