I’ve spent a bit of time calculating the impact of the redistributions in districts throughout South Australia and Victoria (which took place after the 2010 election) on each district. The table below shows the impact of the redistributions for Victoria state for Labor, the Liberal group, the Greens and Family First (click on the table for an easier read):
The biggest changes took place in the McEwen district, which saw a significant shift to Labor. The Greens will lose about 1.2 percentage points in the Melbourne district, the only seat in Parliment they currently hold. Unless there is a major reduction in Green support however, they should hold this seat in the upcoming election. The Casey district tightened up in favor of Labor but the Liberals are likely to hold this seat.
The next table shows the effect of the redistribution in South Australia state:
The redistribution’s effect was much less in South Australia than in Victoria with only the Hindmarsh district appearing to experience any significant potential impact.
The next stage in my work is to input the effect of these changes into my model and then calculate how the race in districts with no incumbent should change compared with 2010. With these figures in hand, I will then calibrate the 2010 polls with my model and with that calibration in hand, I will be able to make my first forecast for the upcoming election.